ACA Subsidies Expiring in 2025 Could Double Health Insurance Costs in 2026

The date that really matters for your health insurance bill is December 31, 2025. That is when the extra savings that were added during the pandemic and extended by the Inflation Reduction Act come to an end. Those savings are what have kept many Americans’ monthly premiums low. When the clock hits January 1, 2026, those enhancements disappear unless Congress passes an extension. The regular tax credit that’s part of the Affordable Care Act stays in place, but the enhanced version, the one that makes the real difference for millions, will be gone.

So what happens if Congress does nothing?

Experts say the change would hit hard. Analysts at the Kaiser Family Foundation estimate that the average person who gets help through the ACA Marketplace today could see their costs more than double in 2026. Someone earning about twenty-eight thousand dollars a year, for example, could go from paying about one percent of their income for insurance to almost six percent. That’s roughly an extra twelve hundred dollars a year, and that’s before counting the roughly twenty percent increase in base premium prices that insurers are already planning.

Put simply, the math is ugly. Health System Tracker found that proposed 2026 premiums are already up about eighteen to twenty percent even before the loss of subsidies. Combine that with smaller government help, and people could see their monthly payments rise by seventy-five percent or more. A person paying five hundred dollars a month now could easily see that bill jump to somewhere between nine hundred and twelve hundred a month, depending on income, age, and plan level. Some could pay even more.

That’s a big reason Democrats are holding their ground in the current shutdown fight. They’re demanding that any government funding bill include an extension of the enhanced ACA subsidies. Their point is simple: letting those subsidies end would send health insurance costs soaring right as new 2026 plans take effect. Republicans are gambling that Democrats will eventually give in, but both sides know this issue hits voters directly in their pockets. Polls show a majority of Americans want the extra subsidies to stay in place.

If your plan is through a company like Blue Cross Blue Shield, the impact depends on how you’re insured. If you bought your plan on the ACA Marketplace, where subsidies apply, you’ll see the biggest change. Those on-exchange plans will lose part of their discount if Congress doesn’t act, and insurers are already warning that premiums could nearly double. If you’re off-exchange, meaning you bought coverage directly from an insurer and don’t receive subsidies, you won’t lose any credits because you never had them, but you will still feel the overall increase in 2026 base premiums.

Medicare members aren’t directly affected by the ACA subsidy change, but 2026 still brings its own wave of price hikes. Federal data suggests the standard Medicare Part B premium could climb about eleven to twelve percent next year, raising it from around one hundred eighty-five dollars to a little over two hundred. Deductibles and prescription drug plan costs are also expected to rise as healthcare prices continue to increase. So while Medicare isn’t losing subsidies, seniors will still face bigger bills for different reasons.

The situation could be even tougher for people living in rural communities or in states that didn’t expand Medicaid. Those areas rely more heavily on Marketplace subsidies to stay covered, and if the enhancements expire, more people will likely go uninsured. Hospitals in those regions could face higher levels of unpaid care, which can spill over into the local economy and strain healthcare systems that are already struggling.
The core problem is that two forces are hitting at once. First, insurers are raising base premiums because of inflation, drug prices, and higher healthcare use. Second, if Congress lets the enhanced subsidies expire, the government pays a smaller share of the cost, leaving you with a much larger bill. Even if your plan’s total cost doesn’t literally double, your share of it probably will.

Here’s what that looks like in real life:

A family that currently pays five hundred dollars a month after credits could be looking at nine hundred to thirteen hundred a month in 2026. A single person earning twenty-eight thousand could see their contribution jump by about one hundred dollars a month or more. A household making around two hundred fifty percent of the poverty line could go from paying about four to five percent of their income to as much as eight or nine percent. That kind of jump can mean several thousand dollars a year.

For now, there are a few things you can do. Keep an eye on Congress over the next few months, because their decision will decide whether your bill stays manageable or jumps overnight. When open enrollment comes around later this year, compare plans closely and look for cheaper benchmark options. If you’re on Medicare, review your Advantage or Part D plan during the fall enrollment window, since many of those plans will change in 2026. If you have private coverage off the Marketplace, check whether you can switch to an on-exchange plan so you’re eligible for tax credits if Congress extends them.

The bottom line is simple. Millions of Americans are depending on Congress to act before the end of 2025. If lawmakers fail to renew the enhanced ACA subsidies, your “affordable” coverage could cost nearly twice as much by the next year. It’s a decision that could turn a five-hundred-dollar bill into a twelve-hundred-dollar one and leave a lot of families deciding whether they can still afford to stay insured.