‘Big Short’ Trader Eisman sees one reason not to worry about deficits
Steve Eisman, the investor who called the subprime mortgage crisis, said fears of the massive size of the federal budget deficit may be overblown. President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed last week added to investor concerns about the fiscal trajectory of the country and future government borrowing. The bill includes trillions of dollars in tax cuts, increased spending for immigration enforcement and large cuts to funding for Medicaid and other social programs. The independent Congressional Budget Office has said the bill could add $3.4 trillion to the $36.2 trillion of outstanding U.S. debt over the next decade. ‘The Real Eisman Playbook’ podcast host and former Neuberger Berman senior portfolio manager takes solace in the 10-year Treasury yield, however, which would be expected to move in reaction to the country’s worsening fiscal health. Instead, the benchmark rate has been directionless since December 2022, Eisman said. “If there was a real alternative to Treasury, then all of this stuff about the deficit is something that I would pay attention to. But as long as there’s no alternative, there’s nothing to talk about,” Eisman said Monday on CNBC’s ” Fast Money .” US10Y 1Y mountain 10-year Treasury yield over the past year. Investors fear the tax-and-spending bill could put upward pressure on bond yields that already face inflationary concerns from rising tariffs. As the U.S. issues more debt to pay for the bill, increased supply could weigh on prices and raise yields. Widely-followed Eisman also isn’t paying close attention to the valuation levels for stocks, which have risen significantly as the market recently climbed to record highs. “What broke the internet bubble was not valuation. What broke the internet bubble was a recession that caused some of these companies to go bankrupt and to do badly,” Eisman said, referring to the late 1990s boom that came crashing down starting in 2000. “So until there’s something really bad happening, like a trade war, which is still a possibility, the valuation is not something I really pay that much attention [to].”
